For F1 Hiring Managers & Engineers · Azerbaijan Grand Prix Preview
Four teams can win in Baku, only one can close on Kimi
McLaren brings new aero, Ferrari gambles on a deliberate engine penalty. The championship math after Madrid leaves only one realistic threat to Antonelli’s title with nine rounds still to run.
By Philip Bowers, Tiro Associates | 22 September 2026 | 6 minute read
Baku’s long main straight and tight, unforgiving old town make the Azerbaijan Grand Prix one of the hardest races on the calendar to call. McLaren itself expects any of the top four teams to be capable of winning it. Behind that open question sits a much sharper one: Ferrari is preparing to deliberately take a grid penalty for Charles Leclerc, Mercedes is quietly banking an engine upgrade for later in the year. Kimi Antonelli’s 81 point championship lead is close enough for one driver to dream about and too far for the rest.
The top four, each arriving with a different plan
What each team is actually doing this weekend
Mercedes arrives dominant but is playing a longer game than the standings suggest. The team has one power unit development opportunity available under the FIA’s ADUO scheme, having been assessed as two to four percent behind the season’s benchmark engine. It has chosen not to use it in Baku. George Russell’s upgrade is being held back for a later triple header instead, a deliberate piece of penalty planning that collapses what would otherwise be two separate grid drops into one. Ferrari has the opposite problem and the opposite plan. Assessed more than four percent off the pace, Ferrari was granted two ADUO upgrades rather than one. Both have already been used. With Charles Leclerc’s Monza crash damaged unit now showing thermal stress fractures under inspection, team principal Fred Vasseur has all but confirmed Baku as the round to take the resulting engine penalty, reasoning that a circuit built around one enormous straight gives Leclerc the best possible chance of recovering places afterwards. McLaren, meanwhile, is pushing development rather than managing it: a new aerodynamic package for the MCL40 arrives in Baku alongside the H-Wing that debuted at Monza. The team is openly predicting a genuine four way fight for the win. Norris arrives with three pole positions from the last four races and was denied a third victory only by the timing of Madrid’s Virtual Safety Car. Red Bull completes the top four still missing Isack Hadjar, whose wrist injury has kept him out since the summer shutdown, with Liam Lawson continuing to deputise even as speculation grows that Hadjar could return this weekend. Verstappen’s own recent form, a strong second place in Madrid among it, makes Red Bull’s power unit a genuine threat on a circuit that rewards exactly that.
The hiring picture behind one weekend
A power unit decision at Ferrari and Mercedes, a brake failure that cost Hamilton a scoreless weekend in Madrid, a new aero package at McLaren, a Virtual Safety Car call that decided a race: four different disciplines, all live in the same fortnight. None of it comes down to a shortage of good engineers in the paddock. It comes down to access to the specific people who can close those exact gaps, most of whom are not looking and were never going to answer a job advert.
The math behind a late charge against Antonelli
Who can actually still do it
Kimi Antonelli leads the championship on 292 points, 81 clear of teammate George Russell, with Lewis Hamilton a further 20 points back on 191 and Lando Norris close behind him. With nine rounds still to run and well over two hundred points still available, the title is not mathematically settled for anyone, but the realistic picture is narrower than the arithmetic alone suggests. Russell is the only one of the three within genuine range. Even 81 points is the gap built from several clean wins rather than a single lucky weekend, closed on identical machinery against a teammate who has taken eight wins and fifteen podiums from fourteen races so far this season. Hamilton and Norris are both over a hundred points back, which realistically requires something closer to the reverse: Antonelli’s season has been remarkably reliable, so closing that gap needs his car to start failing him almost as often as theirs has to behave perfectly, not simply a stronger run of results on their own part. None of the three can afford to treat Baku, or anywhere else left on the calendar, as a round to play safe in.
Working with Tiro
If a weekend like this has exposed a genuine gap in your own technical departments, power unit, chassis, aero or race strategy, the fix is rarely a wider search of who happens to be available. Our work starts with advice, not a sales pitch.
For career advice, click here to message Scarlett
For hiring advice, click here to message Phil
Prefer email or phone? recruit@tiroassociates.com | Phone 44 1277 354469
A human solution for a human problem.
Frequently asked
Why is Ferrari expected to take a grid penalty at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Charles Leclerc’s power unit from his Monza crash has shown thermal stress fractures under inspection. Ferrari is expected to fit a fresh upgraded unit in Baku, triggering a grid penalty. Team principal Fred Vasseur has pointed to Baku’s long straight as the best remaining chance to recover positions afterwards.
How big is Kimi Antonelli’s championship lead heading into Baku?
Antonelli leads on 292 points, 81 clear of Mercedes teammate George Russell, with Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris both more than a hundred points back.
What upgrades is McLaren bringing to Baku?
A new aerodynamic package aimed at the MCL40’s overall performance, alongside the H-Wing that first appeared at Monza, chosen specifically for the drag reduction it offers on Baku’s long main straight.
Isack Hadjar return for Red Bull in Azerbaijan?
Hadjar has missed Zandvoort, Monza and Madrid with a wrist injury. He is fit for Baku, though Red Bull has stressed it will not rush his return before he is fully ready.
This preview is based on the 2026 Formula 1 drivers standings following the Spanish Grand Prix and publicly reported team plans ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend of 24 to 26 September 2026.
Race preview, 22 September 2026 | recruit@tiroassociates.com | Phone 44 1277 354469
